CPI data on Dec 12: Will November inflation show signs of easing?

India’s consumer price index (CPI) inflation for November is projected at 5.5%, below the Monetary Policy Committee’s (MPC) upper limit of 6%, but still significantly above its target of 4%, according to a CNBC-TV18 poll.

The CPI data will be released at 4 pm on December 12.

The projected 5.5% inflation marks a decline from October’s 6.21%. However, other estimates ranging between 5.5% and 5.8% suggest that food inflation remains a concern.

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Core inflation, which has stayed around 3.7% and below the 4% mark, is not expected to be a significant issue in November.

Food inflation, on the other hand, is estimated to remain high at 8.5%, close to the year-ago level of 8.7%, indicating a consistent annual rise of 8–9%.

Key staples like tomatoes, onions, and potatoes (TOP) will be closely monitored. There is some consolation in the historical trend of vegetable prices declining during December-January, which may alleviate pressure on inflation in the coming months.

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The October index of industrial production (IIP) data is also due for release on December 12, with expectations of a 3.5% growth, largely attributed to a high base effect from the previous year’s festive season when growth stood at 11%.

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