President Xi Jinping extended congratulations to Trump, urging both countries to “find the right way to get along” amid longstanding economic and security tensions. Xi emphasised that “stable, sound, and sustainable” relations serve the interests of both nations and are essential to international stability.
China-US ties, which hit a historic low over disputes ranging from trade to Taiwan, have only recently improved following a November 2023 summit between Xi and President Joe Biden. Trump’s victory, however, has raised concerns about a return to the high-stakes trade war initiated in 2018.
Analysts suggest Trump’s proposed tariffs—potentially as high as 60% on Chinese goods—could severely impact China’s already fragile economy, adding to domestic challenges in the property sector and local government debt, Reuters reported.
China’s commerce ministry responded cautiously, expressing a willingness to maintain economic and trade ties but refraining from any discussion of retaliatory measures. “China is willing to expand cooperation to benefit both countries,” a ministry spokesperson stated, emphasising cooperation despite looming tariff threats, it added.
The current state of cooperation extends beyond trade. In defence, diplomatic dialogue has recently opened between top military officials, aiming to manage tensions in areas like the South China Sea and Taiwan.
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Beijing-based analysts worry that Trump’s return could disrupt these fragile military engagements, which had previously stagnated following then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in August 2022.
Alexander Neill, a security expert at Hawaii’s Pacific Forum, noted, “The leadership does not like unpredictability… I would expect the military leadership to be much more on edge in their deployments surrounding flashpoints.”
Defence cooperation has yielded critical advancements, such as theatre-level commander dialogues, initiated to minimise misunderstandings amid high tensions in the Indo-Pacific. However, Trump’s stance could lead to shelving further discussions on strategic arms control, a move that would hinder efforts to address China’s growing nuclear capabilities.
“It is very telling that even during this current mild thaw… Beijing still switched off arms control conversations with Washington,” said Jon Czin of the Brookings Institution.
According to the Reuters report, Fentanyl-related cooperation is another area of concern. Both nations have made strides in combatting the illegal flow of chemicals used to produce fentanyl, following joint investigations and China’s tightened controls on certain chemical precursors.
The Biden administration has focused on this issue as a critical public health crisis, and its abandonment could significantly stall efforts to curb the deadly opioid crisis.
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Environmental cooperation, particularly on climate change, is also expected to wane. Trump has previously signalled an intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, a move that analysts fear will disrupt global climate talks and limit China’s incentives to set stronger emissions targets.
California and other US states may continue subnational initiatives, but Beijing remains wary of US “green trade barriers” and their impact on its electric vehicle and solar industries.
In the economic sphere, working groups established in 2023 have been crucial for managing complex trade and financial issues, yet these dialogues may be scrapped under Trump’s watch. Zhao Mingzhao of Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies explained, “For Beijing, there is legitimate concern… these dialogues could be halted, could be stopped again.”
Despite these complexities, China’s state-run media remains cautiously optimistic. The China Daily editorialised that Trump’s second presidency could offer a “new beginning” if approached pragmatically, calling for a “pragmatic approach to bilateral relations” amidst global challenges.
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