RBI MPC Inflation Update: FY25 forecast revised higher to 4.8%; Q1 CPI projected at 4.6%

The move comes after the retail inflation in the month of October stood at 6.21%, above the RBI’s targeted band of 4% to 6%.

Retail inflation in the month of October had surged to the highest level in 14 months. Most of the price rise came from vegetable inflation, which stood at 42% year-on-year and 11% compared to September.

In his post policy address, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that near-term inflation remains elevated on food price pressure and that vegetable prices will see seasonal correction during the winter months.

Projections for the third quarter has been revised to 5.7% from 4.8% earlier, while for the fourth quarter, it has been revised to 4.5% from 4.2% earlier.

The RBI has also issued projections for the second quarter of financial year 2026, expecting inflation to be at 4%. For the first quarter, the estimates have been revised higher to 4.6% from 4.3% earlier.