Government sources explained that this month-on-month (MoM) dip is part of seasonal fluctuations observed every year. “In 2023, we saw a similar drop—from ₹1.72 lakh crore in October to ₹1.68 lakh crore in November 2023. Historically, the sharpest MoM increase occurs in April, while May sees the steepest fall,” they said.
November’s collections reflect business activity from October, a festive month including Dussehra and Diwali, which traditionally fuel higher consumption.
Looking at November 2024 numbers closely, the Central GST collection stood at ₹34,141 crore, State GST at ₹43,047 crore, Integrated IGST at ₹91,828 crore and cess at ₹13,253 crore, according to data released by Finance ministry.
The total gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenue grew 8.5 per cent to over Rs 1.82 lakh crore in November as compared to Rs 1.68 lakh crore in the same month a year ago, it said.
In October, GST collections reached ₹1.87 lakh crore, marking the second-highest mop-up on record with 9% annual growth. The highest-ever monthly collection was achieved in April 2024, crossing ₹2.10 lakh crore.
In November, domestic GST revenue grew 9.4% to ₹1.40 lakh crore, while revenues from tax on imports rose by 6% to ₹42,591 crore.
Refunds issued during the month totalled ₹19,259 crore, a year-on-year decline of 8.9% over the year-ago period.
After adjusting refunds, net GST collection increased by 11% to ₹1.63 lakh crore.
Experts say the numbers are not very encouraging.
MS Mani, Partner, Deloitte India, noted that the 10%+ growth in domestic GST revenue aligns with India’s GDP growth trajectory, while the 6% rise in import GST reflects slower growth in non-petroleum imports.
“The projected GDP growth of 7% in FY25 augers well for GST collections in the remaining four months of the current fiscal year, considering the collections in the first eight months of FY25 have exceeded that of FY25 by more than ₹1 lakh vore and are ahead of the Budget Estimates for FY25,” he said.
However, Mani highlighted concerns over single-digit growth in industrial states like Haryana (2%), Punjab (3%), Uttar Pradesh (5%), Tamil Nadu (8%), and Telangana (3%). Negative growth in Rajasthan (-1%), Andhra Pradesh (-10%), and Chhattisgarh (-1%) is particularly worrying given their economic impact.
Saurabh Agarwal, Tax Partner, EY, cautioned that the festive boost in states like Delhi, Maharashtra, and Karnataka does not necessarily signal broader economic strength.
“In fact, month-on-month collections have declined, even after the festive boost. Considering the recent GDP data for the September 2024 quarter, we anticipate a slowdown in tax collections over the next four months. The global geopolitical scenario and potential consumer spending cuts could further exacerbate short-term economic growth,” Agarwal said.
However, he added that positive trends in states like Jammu & Kashmir, Bihar, Sikkim, Mizoram, Tripura, Assam, and Odisha signal economic momentum in these regions.
Abhishek Jain, Indirect Tax Head & Partner, KPMG, called the 8.5% growth in overall collections and 9.4% growth in domestic revenue “impressive”, considering the economic slowdown and negative growth in some regions.
Vivek Jalan, Partner, Tax Connect Advisory Services LLP, feels that “the Income Tax numbers and GST numbers are “dichotomous”.
“While year-to-date Direct Tax Collections till November 10 have grown by more than 15%, the year-to-date GST collections in around that period have grown by only 9.3%. This suggests growing income levels aren’t translating into proportional consumption. It may also mean inequality of income in the country,” Jalan said.
Jalan added that “the year-to-date GST Collections growth are also below the budgeted growth and considering that nominal GDP growth is around 10.5%, the buoyancy of GST collections is below one.”
The experts feel the attention will now turn to the 55th GST Council meeting on December 21 in Jaisalmer, where policymakers will analyse the numbers and discuss strategies to boost collections without increasing tax rates.
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